Currently, there are a lot of problems in the grain industry. Disruption of economic relations, undermining the material and technical base and a sharp drop in labor productivity in grain production, led to deep crisis phenomena: grain production decreased, costs increased, the level of profitability of grain production dropped sharply.
Considering the difficult state of the grain industry in scientific articles, the authors note a number of main reasons. They are as follows:
- unfavorable precipitation and temperature periods for grain crops,
- difficult economic and deteriorating technical condition of agricultural enterprises,
- a declining overall level of agrotechnology and demands from the agronomic service.
For example, N.A. Morozov, in his work, believes that “ignoring such an important element of agricultural engineering as rolling winter crops does not allow for compacting the soil and concentrating the minimum amount of moisture in the area where the seeds are located”.
The main direction of increasing the volume of grain production is the complex application of all intensification factors. As the experience of farms has shown, the higher the cost per 1 hectare of cereals, the higher the yield and profit per hectare of crops. So V.A. Markin notes that “in farms in which the cost of 1 ha was 2.5–3.0 thousand rubles. the average yield was higher by 23%, net income - by 42%, profit - by 54%, than in farms, where the costs were 2.0-2.5 thousand rubles. ” Of particular importance, in the opinion of Strelkova Ye. V., the expansion of pure vapors and winter crops is of increasing yield and sustainability of production. “The transition to such a structure of crops will allow to fully master the crop rotations. In addition, an increase in the proportion of winter crops will reduce the intensity of sowing and harvesting, reduce the need for labor resources and technology, and ensure a more uniform load during the growing season. ” And I. A. Minakov and N. N. Evdokimov one of the main directions of intensification of grain farming is called the improvement of the technology of cultivation of grain crops. In their opinion, this is most fully realized in intensive resource-saving cultivation technologies. So in the SEC “Mayak Lenina” of the Sampursky district of the Tambov region, winter wheat is grown using intensive technology on an area of 60 hectares. And the yield there is 38.6% higher, the unit cost of production is 3.9% less, the labor costs are one centner lower by 12.8%, and the profit is 27.2% higher than the indicators for growing winter wheat using the usual technology. The recoupment of additional costs amounted to 323.8%, and the annual economic effect from the use of intensive technology reached 871.8 thousand rubles. on one hectare of crops. Studies in V. I. Makarov show that the contribution of a variety to crop growth can be on average 50%, while the rest is provided by means of chemicalization and mechanization. He argues that “the higher the yield, the more demanding it is for the conditions of cultivation and needs to be carried out in the whole complex of agrotechnical operations. The yield of intensive varieties of crops is reduced due to any violation of agricultural technology. ”
Unfortunately, this technology is not widely used in agricultural enterprises of the Tambov region. And the main reason hindering its implementation is the lack of funds from manufacturers for the purchase of material resources necessary for intensive production. And in order to successfully use in production intensive technologies, zoned and highly productive varieties, it is necessary to strengthen the material and technical base of enterprises. According to N. V. Yermolenko, a comparison of the results of the activities of agricultural enterprises shows that those with a 2 times better indicator of energy equipment and 1.5 times more fertilizers per 1 hectare of arable land receive grain yields at 71 % above.
A number of scientists conducted an economic assessment of intensive technologies. They note that this assessment in the Central Black Earth region is carried out in two stages. “At the first stage, the degree of influence of the main factors (steam, variety, means of chemicalization, level of mechanization) on increasing crop yields and improving grain quality is analyzed”, and at the second stage, they determine the effective indicators of the effectiveness of intensive technologies depending on all costs.
Thus, Professor I. A. Minakov argues that “the intensification of grain farming can ensure a yield increase of up to 10-15 centners per hectare, as well as a high yield of gluten (up to 32%) and protein. However, in the current economic conditions, the shortage of material and technical resources, when carrying out many agrotechnical measures is difficult, it is necessary to use, according to the author, an economic mechanism for resource conservation, the foundations of which are resource-saving technologies. They allow at the lowest possible cost of labor and funds to obtain the necessary yields. In this case, minimal tillage is carried out, combined units are used, which allow to minimize its compaction. “The calculations made show that the use of the latter makes it possible to increase labor productivity by 1.4–1.6 times, to reduce the unit cost of production by 20–25%, and the consumption of fuel and lubricants - by 30–35%.”
It is known that it is easier and cheaper to produce agricultural products by reducing losses than to produce it again. In order to always have enough bread in Russia, it is necessary to pay serious attention to the production of rye food grain. For example, in Russia, winter rye grain is produced in large volumes, but the baking industry is not fully provided with high-quality rye grain. Due to its biological characteristics, rye is able to grow on lands of different fertility and surpasses other grains in yield. The nutritional value of rye bread also has an advantage over wheat in the content of essential amino acids, proteins and vitamins. According to R. Nurlygayanov, the main thing is that rye gives guaranteed yields in any years. “So, if the yield of spring wheat in the dry 1999 ranged from 10 to 25 c / ha, then rye yielded at least 30 c / ha, and in a clean pair - 42 c / ha. He further notes that by preparing high-quality rye food grain, it is possible to enter the foreign market. However, in Russia as a whole, the situation with the production of high-quality rye food grain is poor, which is why they buy insignificant volume of rye bread on the domestic market. The greatest losses of grain are allowed in the field when the harvesting time is tightened, and, even worse, the harvest is not harvested. Today, the grain harvest is quite enough to satisfy the state’s need for them; it must be removed and preserved in a timely manner. In solving this problem, according to Dumchenko Z.Ya. and Glutsenko LT , it is necessary to determine priorities. In the first place to put the harvest in the optimum time and ensure the high-quality preservation of grain, then the implementation of the mandatory sale of their farms to state resources. The timing and methods of harvesting cereals are very important. So, according to the recommendations of manufacturers, winter rye should be removed for food purposes at the end of wax ripeness. “Late harvesting has a very negative effect on baking properties.” R. Ismagimov and R. B. Kurlygayanov note that during wet weather it is undesirable to mow winter rye for food purposes into rolls, since in rolls, baking qualities decrease faster. And finding it in rolls for more than 6 days can lead to its damage and unsuitability. Of course, in their opinion, winter rye crops should be clean from weeds and have evenly developed stems. Further, in their publication, they talk about timely post-harvest cleaning and drying of grain. “Weed and wet grain quickly loses its baking quality. Therefore, immediately after harvesting, primary cleaning is necessary, and if the grain is wet, then drying ”.
So, mainly due to violations of agricultural cultivation, harvesting technology and post-harvest processing, there is a noticeable decrease in the baking properties of rye grain. And such a grain becomes suitable only for fodder purposes.
In addition, it is necessary to solve the problem of developing the base for post-harvest processing and storage of grain through economic integration and cooperation of farms. In another scientific publication, Nurlygayanov R. notes that “this way is 2-3 times cheaper than creating in each farm grain storage tanks, grain-drying and grain-cleaning capacities. Enterprises should be located at a distance of 25-30 km from the fields. At the same time, the need for transport will be reduced by 1.5-2 times due to mechanization of unloading and loading. ”
We believe that the cost of transferring all processes to industrial technology will be less than the cost of the annual purchase of grain for currency. A.L. Trisvyatsky offers another way out of this problem, and it consists in the temporary storage of grain at grain-receiving enterprises on a give-and-take basis for a fee. In order to substantiate the calculations, a scheme has been developed for settlements for grain storage services provided by the elevators. The peculiarity of the proposed scheme is that “the calculations of grain producers with grain-receiving points are carried out at negotiated prices established on the basis of basic, reflecting the average level of costs for the production association and the standard level of profitability”. In our opinion, the implementation of this methodology in practice could help streamline the grain market.
In general, real and sustained success in grain production can only be achieved as a result of an increase in its scientific and technical potential that combines human, material, financial and information resources. An example of a scientific and technical program is the Post-Harvest Treatment of Grain program. V.I. Kochetkov writes that the main goal of the program is to reduce energy consumption for drying, the use of cold and preservatives. The program for improving the methods of measuring and monitoring the quality of grain and grain products is extremely important. The main goal of this program is to bring together Russian standards and measurement methods with methods that dominate world practice. However, despite the urgency of these issues, in modern agrarian policy their theoretical and practical development lags behind the demands of life. What negatively affects the economic development of grain production of all agriculture.
Based on the real situation in the Ministry of Agriculture, a draft of a branch targeted Program for ensuring sustainable production and development of the grain market in the Russian Federation was developed.
The key direction of the Program is the gradual replacement of existing production systems with their physically worn out park and the backward technological level of growing crops for improved production systems, where yield is increased through the use of higher quality seeds, fertilizers, and plant protection products. On the basis of the calculations made, the predicted yield with the use of existing production systems will be on average 12.8 centners per hectare, improved 17.8 centners per hectare and new ones in the range of 20-40 centners per hectare. The scientific support of the Program is carried out by the Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, including development and development.
Considering the state significance, relevance and priority of the problems solved in accordance with the Grain Program, it is advisable to include it in the list of federal targeted programs.
The difficult situation is with the sale of grain. Until recently, civilized forms of its sales did not appear in Russia. The only channel that meets these requirements is the contract purchase of grain for federal and regional funds. According to most scientists, the role of the federal and regional funds of grain production is a necessity that is dictated by providing the people with bread. A. Trubilin points out that the procurement of grain plays an important role in raising the problem of grain production. This situation reduces the efficiency of grain sales by rural producers, and, on the other hand, raises the price for consumers, since grain, being turned to by oil companies, commercial structures and other organizations, is repeatedly resold by them before they reach the final consumer. As for the grain used for fodder purposes, the state’s abandonment of its purchases with joint unprofitability and reduction of livestock production, unresolved organization and economic relations in the chain (grain producer - feed mill - livestock), continued decline in consumption of meat, milk, eggs entailed a reduction in its consumption in 1999 compared with 1990 by 1.8 times.
Thus, we can conclude that the lack of grain commodity resources in the state does not allow it to carry out price regulation of the market. A significant annual fluctuations in gross fees, and, consequently, the product offer cause a sharp fluctuation in market prices.
All of the above suggests that a catastrophic situation is developing in the country with the production and use of grain.
For effective work of grain production, it is necessary to create a free market in which producers and consumers will act independently, here the actual prices for grain are determined, reflecting the socially necessary costs of its production. The absence of the market relations mechanism itself — the system of mutually beneficial contracts and payments already in the early years of market reforms began to give negative results both at the federal level and in the regions of the Federation, R. Nurlygayanov notes.
In modern conditions, the Russian grain market is under the influence of three main interrelated factors, which include:
- relatively low payment demand of the majority of the population,
- the remaining part of imported meat, dairy, and, since 1999, grain products, which significantly reduce feed grain resources for the development of domestic animal husbandry,
- reducing the profitability of production with its optimal “overproduction” for fodder purposes, the growth of barter operations with grain.
The domestic market is not sufficiently solvent to increase production. In order to revive it, according to Kiselev, it is necessary to implement measures aimed at lifting the ban on the heads of the subjects of the federation to export grain outside the territory. He believes that it is necessary “to introduce a mechanism of interventional purchases of grain and mortgage operations, to provide preferential loans for the timely purchase of mineral fertilizers and plant protection products to improve the quality of grain. At present, our country has a regulatory framework for interventional operations. He also proposes that commodity producers unite in an association of commodity producers for the sale of grain to study the question of its possible export. A.V. Tolmachev believes that the state financial leasing in the form of a commodity loan can contribute to the increase in grain production, since thanks to him, farms can somewhat upgrade their machine and tractor fleet. He writes that the supply of combine harvesters for leasing even exceeded the purchase of equipment by the farms themselves. “So in 1998, the supply of combine harvesters for leasing amounted to 107 units, and the farms purchased 67 units.” But, unfortunately, in the structure of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation there is no special body implementing state regulation of the grain market, based on the principles adequate to market economic conditions. World experience has shown that the marketing management system most fully meets this principle. In this regard, V.A. Klyuchak argues that "it allows you to objectively monitor the situation on the market, affects the course of their development, recommending tactical measures of regulation."
In general, the country is in a disastrous situation with the production and use of grain. This position of the grain industry can not but worry the state. Attitudes toward her need to be radically revised. Grain production should be a priority sector of state regulation and support among other industries. Необходимо выполнять в первую очередь федеральные законы (“О поставках и закупках сельскохозяйственной продукции, сырья и продовольствия для государственных нужд” и “Закон о государственном регулировании агропромышленного производства”), а так же ряд других нормативно-правовых актов. Таким образом саморегулирование зернопроизводства невозможно. Только государственный механизм в сочетании с частной инициативой способны сохранить устойчивость зернопроизводства в периоды критических ситуаций и обеспечить ее развитие. Преодоление разрушительных процессов в зерновой отрасли возможно только за счёт дополнительного выделения ей финансовых ресурсов, концентрации их в регионах и хозяйствах, располагающих наиболее благоприятными условиями для производства относительно дешевого и более качественного зерна.
[править] Государственная политика
In 2010, the Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation was adopted. It identifies the main objectives of food security:
- Forecasting, identifying and preventing internal and external threats to food security. The main threats are the economic situation at home and abroad, the loss of the necessary technologies and resources, environmental risks. Among other things, proposed measures of state regulation of the market. It is also proposed to limit the spread of genetically modified organisms.
- Formation of strategic food reserves and building a system of providing citizens with food products in case of negative events.
- Development of food and raw materials production sufficient to ensure the country's food independence. The criteria selected recommendations of the UN. Minimum target levels for local grain production were set at 95% of consumption, sugar 80%, vegetable oil 80%, meat 85%, milk 90%, fish 80%, potatoes 95%, salt 85%. It is proposed to improve the social arrangement of rural settlements, to diversify employment in them, to ensure the financial stability of producers, import substitution of technologies, machinery, equipment and other industrial resources.
- Ensuring the availability and safety of food for citizens. Mechanisms: social subsidies, improving the quality control of products, promoting healthy eating, the fight against alcoholism.
As a consequence, the Doctrine in the country adopted the “State Program for the Development of Agriculture and Regulation of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Food for the years 2013-2020”. It provides for the development of a number of subprogrammes and federal target programs for regulatory, regulatory and subsidized support for agriculture, including:
- Subprogram "Technical and technological modernization, innovative development."
- Federal target programs “Social development of the village until 2013” and “Sustainable development of rural territories for 2014–2017 and for the period until 2020”.
- Federal target programs "Preservation and restoration of soil fertility of agricultural lands and agricultural landscapes as the national heritage of Russia for 2006–2010 and for the period up to 2013" and "Development of land reclamation for agricultural lands of Russia for 2014-2020".
[edit] General situation
In 2015, the volume of domestic products in the total mass of the domestic market amounted to about 88.7%, which was higher than the threshold set by the Food Security Doctrine, approved by the President of the Russian Federation in 2010. For 3-4 years, Russia has reduced the cost of purchasing food abroad almost 2 times: from 42-44 billion dollars to 23-24 billion in 2015.
In 2016, the share of imported food in Russia fell to a record minimum. Industries and companies that invested in capacity expansion before the devaluation of the ruble, or had unloaded capacity, were able to expand production. The cheese market has changed the most: the share of imports in consumption decreased to 20–23% from 45–48% at the beginning of 2014. At historical lows, the share of foreign products in the volume of meat consumption: for example, imported pork went from 16–18% to 9%, poultry - from 17-19% to 10-11%. Three reasons for what is happening. First, significant volumes of import are blocked by sanctions. Secondly, the ruble exchange rate makes many imported products uncompetitive in the Russian market. Thirdly, the Russian agriculture continues to grow rapidly, firmly pressing on the market share of foreign competitors.
As of April 2017, according to the Government, Russia has completed five of the eight indicators of the Food Security Doctrine, providing itself with grain, potatoes, sugar, vegetable oil, meat. For fish, the target is almost reached, the salt situation is improving, and only dairy products remain noticeable problems.
[edit] Situation by product
The Food Security Doctrine lists critical products for Russia and the minimum level of their own production. These are grain (95%), sugar (80%), vegetable oil (80%), meat (85%), milk (90%), fish (80%), potatoes (95%) and table salt (85%) .
For all these products, the minimum level of own production is either achieved or practically achieved. The only point of the doctrine on which food security is not yet provided is milk and dairy products. Our production covers 80% of needs, while the plan is to close 90%.
[edit] Grain
Russia ranks first in the world in the collection of rye and oats, in third place (after China and India) in the collection of wheat. The harvest of all grains in Russia in 2013 amounted to 91 million tons, in 2015 - 104 million tons, in 2016 - 116 million tons, in 2017 - 134.1 million tons.
We are in third place (after the United States and the European Union) in grain exports. Russia also imports a small amount of high-quality grain. The volume of this import does not exceed one percent of the total collection.
Standards of grain consumption are calculated at the rate of 110 kilograms of bread per person per year, while approximately 750 kilograms of bread are produced from one ton of grain. Thus, bread needs 143 kilograms of grain per person per year. Another 30 kilograms must be added to pastries, pasta, cereal, and so on. 25% of the grain from the total amount must be deducted for seeds and natural loss during storage. Total consumption will be 230 kilograms of grain per person per year.
The total consumption of the population of Russia will thus be 32 million tons of grain per year. If we turn to statistics, it will become clear that the food security of Russia for grain is provided with a margin.
[edit] Sugar
In 2011, Russia collected 46.2 million tons of beets and came out on top in the world in this indicator. In 2016, for the first time in history, Russia became an exporter of sugar, producing 1 million tons more than needed for its own consumption.
According to the results of 2016, the total production volume exceeded 6 million tons, which is 4.9% higher than the level of 2015 (5.7 million tons). At the same time, the gross harvest of sugar beets set an absolute record - 48.3 million tons (+23.8% compared with 2015, when the collection was 39.0 million tons).
Sugar processing plants are usually located in the immediate vicinity of the beet harvesting sites (that is, also in Russia), since the transportation of raw materials over long distances is economically unprofitable. However, a significant part of seeds for sugar beet is imported (up to 92% in Kuban in 2014).
Sugar imports to Russia are constantly declining. It can be expected that in the medium term, only selected varieties of sugar will be imported, for which raw materials are not growing in Russia.
[edit] Vegetable oil
Russia produces 3.5-4 million tons of vegetable oil per year, mainly sunflower oil. Thus, we almost completely cover our needs for vegetable oil. The share of imports in the market is no more than 3%. Export of vegetable oil, on the contrary, is very impressive and accounts for approximately 25% of the volume of production.
Thus, food security in vegetable oil in Russia is provided with a margin.
[edit] Meat and meat products
The Doctrine states that Russia should produce 85% of the consumed meat independently. In 2015, we reached this level for the first time, and in 2016, the provision of Russia with domestic meat increased to 92%.
Everything is good with poultry meat and pork, a lot is already being exported. Problems are observed with beef. Cattle grows much more slowly than poultry and pigs, investment in the production of cattle meat is somewhat more complicated and is designed for a longer period, about 10 years or more. However, work is already underway in Russia in this area - in 2014, the largest beef processing complex in Russia was opened in Bryansk Region, which will replace 7% of imports of this meat. The plant worth 6 billion rubles is part of a large project in the Bryansk region worth 25 billion rubles, and this is not the only project of this kind, so production will continue to grow.
[edit] Milk
Milk production is closely tied to the livestock of cows, which in the nineties has been greatly reduced. It is also necessary to take into account that cattle can be meat and dairy, while approximately 8% of the total number of animals “work” specifically on the direction of milk.
The production of raw milk is about 30 million tons and for several years now has been keeping at about the same level - as well as the production of dairy products.
In 2012, 8.52 million tons of milk and dairy products were imported to Russia, with their own production at 31.92 million tons. Most imports come from Belarus.
Thus, the level of own production of milk is about 80%, which is less than the target of 90%.
[edit] Fish and fish products
In terms of fish catch, Russia ranks fifth in the world, which provides us with a reliable resource base in this industry.
The minimum physiological rate of consumption of fish meat is 15.6 kg per person per year. Thus, the total level of fish consumption in the country should not be below 2.2 million tons.
In reality, Russia consumes about 28 kg of fish per year per capita. Fish production exceeds 3.7 million tons.
Thus, the level of food security for fish is provided with a large margin.
[edit] Potatoes
In 2012, Russia harvested 29.5 million tons of potatoes. This is not a very high yield: in 2006, we collected 38.5 million tons. Nevertheless, even with such a harvest, Russia took the third place in the world in collecting potatoes, after China and India. Another potato power, Belarus, collected in 2012, 6.9 million tons.
Potato consumption in Russia is declining - higher incomes encourage people in Russia to prefer more expensive products to potatoes.
The export of potatoes from Russia is insignificant. The import of potatoes does not exceed 1.5 million tons per year: these are mainly high-quality potatoes that retailers buy for the range.
According to various sources, the consumption rate of potatoes ranges from 100 to 130 kilograms per person per year: thus, Russia's needs for this product range from 14 to 18 million tons.
Our own production with a large margin covers these needs.
[edit] Carrots
Contrary to some opinions, import of carrots to Russia is insignificant. The total volume of the Russian carrot market in 2012 amounted to 1,768.9 thousand tons. The share of imports in the market was 11.5%. The per capita provision of carrots was at 12.4 kg, which is higher than the medical norm of 6-10 kg.
[edit] Food salt
Data on the Russian market of edible salt is contradictory. However, studies agree on several conclusions:
- Russia imports about 30% of the salt consumed, mainly from Ukraine and from Belarus,
- The lion’s share of salt consumption comes from industry, primarily chemical,
- The physiological need of Russians in salt - 260 thousand tons per year - several times less than the volume of its own production.
If we consider that the salt reserves in the deposits in Russia are estimated at billions of tons, we can conclude that the shortage of salt does not threaten Russia under any circumstances.
[edit] Calculation of the security products of the regions of the Russian Federation
In this calculation, the main products are grains, potatoes, vegetables, meat, milk and eggs.
The basis for calculating the availability of products is a formula from a textbook of UrFU, the essence of which is as follows:
- For each product, the loss factor during storage and processing is taken into account.
- Each product is recalculated from pieces and units in kilocalories,
- Calculates the total caloric value of products produced in the region,
- This caloric value is compared with medical intake rates,
- The result is the security of the region with products of its own production, in percent.
The calculation shows that in 1990 the provision of the RSFSR with basic products was 183%, by 2000 it had dropped to a critical 108%, and by 2011 it had recovered to a quite safe level of 150%:
Grain balance of Russia
Historically, grain production is the basis for the sustainable functioning of the national food sector, it has a systemic character for other sectors of the country's economy, determines the level of food security of the state.
It is considered that the provision rate is one ton per capita. Approximately 140 million people live in Russia, therefore, to meet the needs for bread, bakery products and the industry that uses grain for processing, and animal husbandry, we must produce 140 million tons of grain.
Grain of national security
The doctrine of food safety, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 120 of January 30, 2010, defines the threshold values of own production for the main types of food: grains - 95%, meat - 85%, milk and dairy products - 90%.
Over the past 12 years, since 1998 (with the exception of 2010), the gross grain harvest has increased by an average of 7% per year, but, despite the positive trend, it still lags behind the indicators achieved in the country as early as 1978 - 127 million tons
Fig. 1 - Gross grain harvest in Russia, mln. Tons, 1978-2009
The record harvest of grain in the history of modern Russia -108 million tons in 2008 does not reach the milestone taken 30 years ago.
In the structure of world cereal production, Russia ranks fourth after the USA, China and India.
The 2008 grain harvest was a record one, but already in 2009, despite the drought, the crop reached 97 million tons in 15 regions of the country, which is also good.
Until June 2010, the Ministry of Agriculture and all analytical centers of Russia predicted a good harvest, valuing it at 90-95 million tons. In addition, there was a large carry-over stock (20-22 million tons), and therefore planned to export up to 25 million tons. There was a question - what to do with grain surpluses, including an intervention fund? Such were the bright prospects for the grain market in Russia.
However, the hot and arid summer led to the death of a grain crop on 30% of the sown areas in 37 regions of the country. The drought led to a loss of harvest for all grain crops, sunflower, potatoes, and beets. As a result, the gross grain harvest in 2010 amounted to 61 million tons and, fearing a grain shortage, delays in sowing winter crops, and in some cases in overdried soil, possible replanting in spring 2011, from August 15, 2010, the Government of the Russian Federation introduced temporary the ban on the export of grain and flour from the territory of Russia, first until December 31, 2010, extending it then, until the harvest of 2011. At that time, 9.6 million tons of grain were stored in the intervention fund.
In total, according to Rosstat, it turned out that there are 78-80 million tons of grain in the country - that is, an amount that is enough only for internal consumption with a small (3-5 million tons) carry-over balance.
Mandatory statistical reporting of crop areas and gross crop collection has long been canceled. Where Rosstat takes data on gross fees is unknown. Therefore, even after the completion of the whole grain harvest, the Ministry of Agriculture could not unequivocally give the figure, and it ranged between 2-3 million tons. The quality indicators related to weight, these figures are given - is unknown. Previously, the grain was taken into account in the test weight. Now there are no uniform standards.
For example, rice with moisture content of 18–20% and weediness of 10–12% comes to the Slavic KHP. 100 tons of such rice after bringing it to a stable state during storage will decrease in weight by 12-15% due to removal of moisture and litter during part-time work. And what will it mean across the country? And in Siberia, Central Russia, where the grain is more raw and clogged? This is almost 15-20 million tons (with a gross yield of approximately 100 million tons). That is, it can be said that the gross collection was 100 million tons, and it can be argued that the gross collection was 80-85 million tons. Both figures will be valid, depending on what quality we assign these figures to bunker weight or by weight after grain processing to a storage-stable state.
How can one make up the grain balance of Russia with such vague information? Hence, information appears that in Russia the shadow grain market amounts to 30%.
It seems that due to the lack of reliable information in the Ministry of Agriculture, there is some kind of confusion and, as a result, the adoption of decisions that are not quite adequate to the situation. Hence, a temporary ban on exports, a partial permit, to whom it is not known. Or maybe we will allow export in October-November, after the harvesting results, then before the 2011 harvest estimate, and as a result - from July 1, 2011
The euphoria that prevailed until July 2010 gradually began to develop into panic. It was followed by a rise in prices for basic foodstuffs. Now the company begins to combat the "unreasonable" price increases. And by whom and what is he called?
Export question
What did the ban on grain exports lead to, and what caused it? Запрет экспорта был мотивирован аномальной жарой, засухой, снижением валового сбора зерна, а так же информацией по текущим остаткам зерна и прогнозу сбора. Правильное ли это решение? Из-за отсутствия достоверной информации о балансе зерна трудно однозначно оценить это решение.
В различных регионах страны взгляды на запрет экспорта кардинально различаются. Юг России, где урожай был хороший, от запрета экспорта понес потери. В пострадавших районах считают это решение правильным.
Based on the published information, from a state point of view, the decision may be correct. Or maybe it was necessary to do differently?
Reduce, but not prohibit exports. Prices in the global market would not have increased so much. We would not lose the main markets. And with a lack of grain, they would import it from Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Grain terminals and export infrastructure would not have losses, they would save frames.
And now? Now from July 1, 2011 grain exports are allowed. As of May 1, 2011, the carry-over grain remains, according to Rosstat, are estimated at 26.2 million tons. The share of Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, as well as the Rostov region in this volume is estimated at more than 6 million tons, and in fact this figure more.
By July 1, 2011, carry-over stocks are estimated at 19.7 million tons. Where do such carry-over stocks come from? What is the reliability of Rosstat information? Now in the south of Russia only about 7 million tons of grain are stored at the elevators, while the harvest of barley is in full swing, the harvest of wheat has begun. Capacities of elevators are not released yet, difficulties are expected in grain placement, and, therefore, unreasonable losses.
Why did it happen that we have such unreliable information? Krasnodar Territory plans gross grain harvest in 2011 - 10 million tons. Elevator and storage capacity - 8.5 million tons and that is 30-35% busy in the harvest of 2010. Consequently, part of the new harvest of 2011 will be stored in outdoor areas. The situation is similar in the Stavropol Territory and the Rostov Region.
This is the result of the lack of reliable information about gross yield and the current availability of grain tied to a specific quality.
The situation is similar with the domestic consumption of grain, which the Ministry of Agriculture estimates at 70-75 million tons, and the Grain Union at 63-65 million tons (a difference of 7-10 million tons).
To whom it is profitable, he assesses, and this affects both the price of grain, and the volume of exports, and the economy of grain production.
The conclusion suggests itself - it is necessary to introduce mandatory statistical reports on the volume of grain sowing in the crop section and its gross collection in the test weight, which corresponds to the condition of the grain in terms of quality that is persistent in storage.
Quality issue
There is even less information about the quality of grain than its gross harvest. If there is any data, then, as a rule, in the context of the region. How is this information?
On elevators - the information is accurate, but in the south of Russia about 35-40% of grain is stored in elevators. The rest is in farms of various forms of ownership, which do not report either quantity or quality (there is no mandatory reporting). Accurately assess it only when implemented, but even in the context of regions this is not generalized.
During Soviet times, the state was state grain, it was stored on elevators, an accurate assessment of quality, reception and sale on the test mass was carried out. There was a 6-K form. It reflects the quality and weight of each batch every month.
Now the South of Russia produces wheat mainly of 4 and 5 classes. Grains of the 3rd class in the Kuban region are approximately 15%, in the Rostov Region 12-13%, in the Stavropol Territory 15-17%.
What is the reason? Where are strong and valuable wheat varieties? Why is there a decline in quality?
Objective reasons are soil depletion, a course for a rampart, environmental disturbance and backward agrotechnology compared to developed countries. That is why it is more profitable to produce grain of inferior quality, but more.
Europe applies up to 300 kg / ha of fertilizers to the soil, and up to 60 kg / ha in the Kuban. Other regions of Russia contribute even less. At the same time, Russia produces 17 million tons of mineral fertilizers per year and 15 million tons of them are exported. Grain producers, due to the high cost of fertilizers, buy only about 2 million tons domestically.
The state in no way stimulates the production of high quality grain and does not help ensure that mineral fertilizers in the right quantities remain within the country. The quality of grain harvested in Russia is practically not monitored. According to the current regulation on the Ministry of Agriculture, this work should be carried out by the Federal State Institution “Center for Evaluation of the Quality and Safety of Grain” of the Rosselkhoznadzor. However, this work is not carried out.
Today, farmers are producing less and less high-quality wheat due to the reduced need for it in the domestic market. The fact is that the government requires only one baker - production of cheap (social) bread, which means of low-grade sorts of flour. In the country, wheat of classes 1 and 2 has almost disappeared, the production of wheat of class 3 has sharply decreased.
For the production of flour is mainly used wheat 4th and even 5th grade. Therefore, changed and GOST for flour. Flour, which was previously produced on the TU, is now also Gostovskaya, only general purpose, and not baking.
Using the illiteracy of the buyer, we mislead him, although we do not violate the law on consumer protection.
In order to improve the quality of flour, we have to buy abroad and add dry gluten and various improvers of technical origin to flour. Now it is possible to artificially influence the quality of products.
Thus, the state represented by the Ministry of Agriculture has reliable data on the quality of grain only by the intervention fund, state reserve and export. The rest of the grain is estimated by the so-called operational information collected, usually by telephone. No one is responsible for the accuracy of this information. Rosstat, by summing up these regions, publishes them. The government, in turn, based on the information received, makes crucial decisions about the balance of grain production and consumption, market, and export.
About the grain market
The grain market is made up of domestic (70-85%) and external (15-30%). In the domestic market, grain is used for the production of bread, bakery and pasta, fodder - for animal feed, poultry, in the starch and alcohol industry, there is a seed fund.
Today, domestic grain consumption is decreasing, as the number of cattle and pigs is decreasing, the grain part of mixed feed is being replaced with other ingredients, and the consumption of bread by the population is decreasing. There is no exact information about the domestic consumption of grain, it varies (according to different sources) from 63 to 75 million tons.
The external market is the export of grain, including the sale of grain and flour, and the provision of humanitarian aid. This market is controlled by the state.
Market participants are producers of grain and its products, buyers, public organizations (the Grain Union, the Union of grain producers, the Union of mills and cereal enterprises, and others), which affect the pricing and opinion of all market participants, sometimes depending on their own interests. The market participant is the state that determines the political aspects of the market, pricing, taxation, duties.
It is profitable for the grain producer (seller) and the Grain Producers Union to submit information about the grain shortage and thereby influence the price increase. It is beneficial for both the buyer and the intermediary to provide information on the grain surplus and large carry-over balances, and thereby influence the price reduction.
The state, represented by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Government, without having reliable information about the gross yield and quality of grain, is forced to listen to the opinions of market participants and analyzing the available (although not entirely reliable) information, to make decisions based on their interests.
If the data on the quantity and quality of grain available in the country and its domestic consumption were accurate, the Government could make more objective decisions.
“Today in Russia there is no reliable information about the amount of grain harvested, its quality and domestic consumption. The reason is the liquidation of mandatory statistical reports on these items for households of all forms of ownership ”, the participants of the 10th All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference“ Modern Methods, Means and Standards in the Evaluation of the Quality of Grain and Grain Products ”, held in Krasnodar Krai June 2011,
The conference participants, specialists from 55 organizations from 16 regions of the country who dedicated themselves to working with grain, this strategically important product for Russia, stated with confidence that the cancellation of a scientifically-based and tested in practice system of quantitative and qualitative accounting of grain and its products is unacceptable . This will lead to abuse, development of corruption, numerous conflicts between all participants of the grain market.
The conference participants made an appeal to the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Viktor Zubkov, in which they proposed to make a decision on two pressing issues of the grain market:
Introduce mandatory statistical reports on the quantity and quality of the harvested grain in the test weight for grain producers of all forms of ownership and periodic reporting on grain residues in the process of its sale and consumption.
To oblige the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation to instruct the relevant services, the All-Russian Research Institute of Grain and its Processing Products and its Kuban branch to develop a new procedure and regulatory documents for quantitative and qualitative accounting of grain and its processed products.
There is enough grain in the country for food security
Russia has harvested enough grain for its food security. This was announced at a meeting on innovation in agriculture, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
“On the main positions of crop production, we went out or even exceeded the indicators of the doctrine of food safety,” stated the Prime Minister. He recalled that this year the grain harvest will be about 104 million tons. According to him, there is success in the poultry industry, and in pig production, as well as in dairy production.
“We have repeatedly said that Russia can, at a minimum, feed itself, and, given the huge reserves of water, arable land, and other resources, take its place among the leading agrarian countries,” he said.
Medvedev noted that “Russian producers have a special responsibility - to ensure supplies in the required volume and quality”. He pointed out that automated production is used both in the world and in Russia. Significant progress has been made in the field of precision farming, when the capabilities of geo-navigation systems, satellite data and computer programs are combined to determine the necessary amount of fertilizers.
“This allows us to reach a fundamentally different level of yield,” he said.
Medvedev believes that the most favorable conditions for the development of agriculture have now been created in Russia.
“Now a truly unique situation, it is that, in view of our well-known decisions for the development of agriculture, especially favorable conditions have been created, including import substitution,” said the head of government.
At the aforementioned meeting on innovation in agriculture, the Governor of the Krasnodar Territory Alexander Tkachev also spoke. He informed that, by the end of the year, a record amount of grain in the entire history of Kuban was received in the region - 13 million tons.
“For us, of course, this is a big victory, and this suggests that we have the potential, and we are not going to stop on this,” said the head of the region.
According to him, the Kuban may well feed the country, as well as reduce costs and make grain production quite profitable.
- The fact that today the profitability of the order of 100 percent - it really allows our domestic, Kuban manufacturers to replenish their working capital. Naturally, to increase the salary, the tax base, to create prerequisites for new industries, - said Tkachev.
He noted that almost all types of products, including meat, poultry increased their profitability. The profitability of pork is now about 30-40 percent, whereas two years ago, this figure was zero.
Dmitry Medvedev stated that there are still problems related to breeding technologies, and these issues will be discussed at a meeting of the Presidential Council on the modernization of the economy and the innovative development of Russia.
